Understanding the role of seasonality in England’s lockdown exit strategy

Even though the impact of vaccinations on transmission, serious illness and death has rightfully grabbed the headlines, there is another element central to England’s lockdown exit strategy. You often hear people talk about it and it does have significance for resource allocation and setting for public health policy, but it remains a poorly understood concept.Continue reading “Understanding the role of seasonality in England’s lockdown exit strategy”

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Understanding the trade-off between factors affecting rate changes in the coronavirus data

February feels like an important month for Boris Johnson and his government. On 22nd of this month, England’s exit strategy from its third national lockdown will be presented to the public. This exit has only been made possible by the tremendous public efforts to bring coronavirus infections, hospitalisations and deaths down from their seemingly insurmountableContinue reading “Understanding the trade-off between factors affecting rate changes in the coronavirus data”

Being patient is working, we’re on the right track

As we start to get this pandemic under control in England, there has been a shift in the narrative toward our lockdown exit strategy, with Boris Johnson and his government set to announce these very plans on February 22nd. However, we are already starting to see the rumblings of discontent within the ruling Conservative PartyContinue reading “Being patient is working, we’re on the right track”

How long might this lockdown last?

Even though England’s lockdown laws are set to end on March 31st, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said it is “too early” to know whether it will be possible to lift restrictions by the spring. However, when addressing MPs in the House of Commons, Health Minister Matt Hancock listed four measures that would need toContinue reading “How long might this lockdown last?”

The government was failing to manage coronavirus before this new variant emerged

England reached a grim milestone over the New Year weekend as hospitalisations from coronavirus surpassed the first wave peak, with this number expected to grow over the coming weeks as cases continue to soar amidst a new strain of the virus – believed to be up to 70% more transmissible. On Monday evening, Boris JohnsonContinue reading “The government was failing to manage coronavirus before this new variant emerged”

Should the whole of England be put into Tier 4?

Boris Johnson placed London, the South East and the East of England into Tier 4 on Saturday evening due to the steepening rise of a new strain of coronavirus that is thought to be up to 70% more transmissible (increasing the R rate by as much as 0.4). The emergence and explosion of this newContinue reading “Should the whole of England be put into Tier 4?”

How can the tougher tier system cope with our precarious winter situation?

In England this week, a select few have received their first coronavirus vaccine. After a tough 2020, there finally appears to be light at the end of the tunnel… a chance to be optimistic. However, we must not lose sight of the fact that we have a tricky few months ahead. The difficult production andContinue reading “How can the tougher tier system cope with our precarious winter situation?”